We had published the list of Top 10 StockBal losers and gainers that had gained or lost the highest StockBal in the month of Nov ’24. Should we expect that most of the stocks that gained StockBal would subsequently continue to perform better than the market? Conversely, will stocks that lost strength in Nov ’24, as measured by StockBal, continue to perform worse than the market in the first half of December ’24?
So, let us check whether this holds true for the list of the Top 10 Gainers and Losers of Varshik Bal and Masik Bal. But, first things first – let us clarify the methodology and ascertain the baseline returns.
Did You Know? StockBal is published daily for all NSE traded stocks and is India’s first multi time-frame measure of relative strength, available in a single dashboard.
Analysis Objectives and Methodology
The reference benchmark is the basket of stocks that are included in the NSE-500.
As mentioned earlier in the Analysis of Returns from a selection of stocks based on StockBal, we have used the NSE-500 as a surrogate for the market, since it is broader as compared to the more popular Nifty.
The returns of the market have been computed based on the maximum potential gains / losses of the median stocks in the NSE 500 bucket over the next 10 trading days.
In other words, the reference period for computing the returns commences after the closing of 29th Nov ’24 and extends upto the close on 13th Dec ’24.
We have computed the returns in this subsequent period only for the Varshik Bal and Masik Bal. We have omitted the Saptahik Bal (Weekly StockBal) from our analysis, since the comparison timeframe of one month is higher than the time-frame of the Saptahik Bal, that is computed on a weekly basis.
An important point to note is the difference in how we measure and benchmark the list of gainers vs losers.
This is driven by the nature of questions that we are seeking to answer.
For the list of Top 10 StockBal Gainers, the question is whether the stocks continued to deliver higher returns?
Hence, we have computed the maximum price of the next 10 days’ High prices.
Conversely, for the Top 10 StockBal Losers, the question is whether the stocks continued to deliver lower returns?
Hence, we have computed the minimum price of the next 10 days’ Low prices.
The Baseline
Before we analyze the results based on the StockBal, it is important to establish the baseline. Since, we are trying to address two separate questions, let us look at each of the scenarios separately.
Benchmark for Top Gainers
For top gainers, we will look at the maximum potential of gains during the 10 trading day period after the market close on 29th Nov ’24, i.e. from 2nd – 13th Dec ’24.
The median of these returns across the entire basket of NSE-500 stocks was 6.34%
Benchmark for Top Losers
Conversely, for top losers, we will look at the maximum potential of losses during the 10 trading day period after the market close on 29th Nov ’24, i.e. from 2nd – 13th Dec ’24.
The median of these returns across the entire basket of NSE-500 stocks was (-) 1.68%
As we have mentioned in our earlier post on analyzing returns, annualizing these numbers does appear to yield a huge return. However, this is based on the maximum potential gain / loss, and it is improbable for anyone to catch the highs / lows all the time.
The central purpose of this analysis is to establish whether a selection of stocks based on StockBal can beat the maximum potential returns of the broader market. Now let us look at how the Top Gainers and Losers performed, as compared to the broader market.
Analysis Of Returns
Top Gainers
Top Varshik Bal Gainers
The 10 stocks that gained the most Varshik Bal (Annual StockBal) in the month of Nov ’24 continued to outperform the broader market.
As compared to the benchmark return of 6.34%, these 10 stocks have shown a potential to generate an average return of 12.66%.
This is almost 100% higher return as compared to the median stock of the broader market.
For example, ITI Ltd (ITI) demonstrated a potential return of over 40%, as it touched a High of Rs 404 on 10th Dec ’24, a whopping 40.95% increase over it’s close price of Rs 286.63 on 29th Nov ’24.
In addition, Swan Energy Ltd (SWANENERGY) increased by more than 30% above it’s 29th Nov close price of Rs 610.95. The high price of Rs 804.40 on 13th Dec ’24 represented an increase of 31.66% increase above the monthly close of November 2024.
Top Masik Bal Gainers
The returns of the stocks that featured in the list of Top 10 Masik Bal gainers continued to clock an impressive performance in the first 2 weeks of December 2024.
These 10 stocks demonstrated an average increase of 13.86% as compared to the benchmark return of 6.34%. This represents an over-performance of 119%, as these 10 stocks returned more than double the returns compared to the broader market.
Interestingly, there were 2 stocks that featured in the list of Top 10 Annual and Monthly StockBal gainers – ITI Ltd (ITI) and Swan Energy Ltd (SWANENERGY).
We have already seen that these two stocks demonstrated potential to generate returns in excess of 40% and 30% respectively in just 10 trading days!
In addition, Phoenix Mills (PHOENIXLTD), gained almost 15% from it’s Nov monthly close of Rs 1,656.25 as it reached a high price of Rs 1,902 on Dec ’24.
Are you wondering who were the other Top 10 StockBal Gainers? Check out the monthly review of StockBal losers and gainers
Top Losers
Top Varshik Bal Losers
The Top 10 stocks that lost the most Annual StockBal (Varshik Stock Bal) continued to under-perform the broader markets.
As compared to the benchmark potential of losses of (-) 1.68%, these 10 stocks have shown a potential of making losses of (-) 4.20%.
This represent 150% higher downside potential as compared to the median stock of the broader market.
For instance, Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGREEN) lost over 15% from the Nov’24 monthly close of Rs 1,323.90, as it touched a low of Rs 1,124.20 on 12th Dec ’24.
Similarly, Aurobindo Pharma Ltd (AUROPHARMA) lost over 7% from it’s Nov ’24 monthly close of Rs 1,262.20, when it fell down to a low of Rs 1,173.10 on 13th Dec ’24.
Top Masik Bal Losers
The Top 10 stocks that lost the most on the Masik Stock Bal (Monthly StockBal) continued to fall more than the broader markets.
These stocks lost (-) 2.85% from the monthly close of November ’24 upto 13th Dec ’24, as compared to the benchmark losses of (-) 1.68%.
This represents a 70% higher potential of negative returns as compared to the broader market.
For example, BASF Ltd (BASF) lost over 8% from the Nov’24 monthly close of Rs 6,016.75, as it touched a low of Rs 5,513.35 on 12th Dec ’24.
Summary of Analysis
As we can see from the above analysis of Top 10 Gainers and Losers, the results are quite interesting.
The top StockBal gainers continued to beat the broader market by around 100% (99% for top Varshik Bal gainers and 119% for Top 10 Masik Bal gainers).
On the other hand, the Top 10 losers of Nov ’24 continued to lose more than the broader market. These stocks fell by 70% more for the biggest Masik Bal losers and by 150% more for the top losers based on Varshik Bal.
As some of you may recall, we had previously published an analysis of returns of a portfolio of stocks that are selected based on the values of StockBal, and found that stocks with a higher StockBal have demonstrated higher potential to generate returns.
Will this always work? Can I trade on this basis?
How would you answer this question for any other tool, indicator, or index?
No trading approach or strategy can guarantee results, either independently or in conjunction with other tools.
Our approach at StockPatri is to provide you data-driven insights, and to help you to uncover the hidden patterns in the market and thereby increase the probability of making profits. The above analysis points to the power of data-driven insights.
It is a well publicized fact that almost all retail traders lose money while trading in the Futures and Options segment. In this backdrop, such analysis provides an insight into the processes, tools and analytics adopted by the institutional players, who benefit largely at the expense of the retail players.
Now, such data-driven insights, indices and tools are available at your fingertips too!
Having analyzed the higher returns that can be generated by identifying stocks using the various StockBal indices, visit and bookmark the StockBal Dashboard now!
Note: Stock market investments are subject to market risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The above should not be treated as investment advice. Stocks mentioned are only for illustrative purposes. Please read the full disclaimers here.